Donald Trump’s victory in New York on Tuesday will give the
Republican presidential front-runner at least 90 of the state’s 95
delegates, keeping him on pace to reach the 1,237 delegates necessary to
clinch the party’s nomination.
The sweeping victory across the state—Mr.
Trump is below the critical 50% threshold in just four of the state’s
27 congressional districts—eliminated rival Sen. Ted Cruz from having
any mathematical chance of winning the nomination outside of a contested
convention. It left Mr. Trump as the only candidate who can become the
party’s nominee without a floor fight in Cleveland.
Mr. Trump
would claim all of New York’s delegates if he won 50% of the statewide
vote, a mark he surpassed easily, and 50% of the vote in each
congressional district, a threshold he will nearly meet.
No matter his delegate haul in New York, a series of potential
potholes remain on Mr. Trump’s road to the GOP nomination. He must win
64% of the bound delegates—those obligated to support a particular
candidate on the first convention vote—that remain in the 15 states yet
to hold primaries.
If Mr. Cruz prevails in a series of May
contests in Indiana, Nebraska, Washington and Oregon, he can stop Mr.
Trump from reaching 1,237 delegates and send the Republican contest to a
desperate scramble for unbound delegates and a multiple-ballot scenario
unseen since Thomas E. Dewey won the party’s 1948 nomination on the
third ballot.
Even with his convincing win in the New York
primary, Mr. Trump will be forced to fight state-by-state for delegates
through the end of the GOP nominating calendar on June 7, when
California’s 172 delegates will be at stake. Mr. Trump just began hiring
California staff this month, once new top aide Paul Manafort took
control of most campaign operations.
Mr. Trump now has at least 845 delegates, some 392 short of the 1,237 needed for the nomination.
After being shut out of delegates in New York, Mr. Cruz remains 678
bound delegates short of 1,237, with 625 left to be awarded. But his
campaign believes his total is more than the 559 bound delegates he has
won, because Mr. Cruz triumphed in a series of recent state party
conventions that name delegates and is likely to inherit delegates who
are now allotted to former candidates, such as Sen. Marco Rubio.
In
his victory remarks Tuesday night, Mr. Trump acknowledged that he has
been outfoxed by the Cruz forces and warned unbound delegates who could
swing the nomination away from him not to do so.
“Nobody should get delegates unless they get those delegates from
voters and voting,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s a crooked system; it’s a
system that’s rigged. We’re going to be going back to the old ways: You
get votes and you win.”
At the same time, Mr. Trump’s campaign is
preparing to put up a fight for unbound delegates in Pennsylvania, a
task that Mr. Trump’s allies have failed to accomplish in a series of
states in the last month. The jockeying over the Keystone State’s
convention-goers is expected to be fierce, because 54 of 71 delegates to
Cleveland won’t be bound to any candidate. Potential delegates’
presidential preferences won’t be noted on the Pennsylvania ballot.
Mr.
Trump’s campaign has a support network in Pennsylvania that he hasn’t
had elsewhere. Two members of the state’s congressional delegation back
Mr. Trump—Reps. Lou Barletta and Tom Marino.
“I know Tom, and I
will do everything we can to make Pennsylvania the most successful,” Mr.
Barletta said Tuesday. “I might not have said this three weeks ago, but
I am very satisfied that there is an organization in place and a plan.”
The campaign of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who appeared poised to win
three or four delegates from New York, proffered the argument late
Tuesday that Mr. Cruz’s weakness in the northeast means that Mr. Kasich
is the only Republican who can stop Mr. Trump. Five Trump-friendly,
Acela corridor states from Maryland to Rhode Island vote on April 26.
Mr.
Kasich’s chief strategist, John Weaver, circulated a memo calling for
the super PACs devoted to blocking Mr. Trump to “get serious” in
upcoming states.
“They weren’t serious in New York and allowed
Trump to get over 50 percent in numerous districts where he could have
been stopped. Continued lack of engagement by Never Trumpers could allow
the Trump campaign to get back on track,” Mr. Weaver wrote.

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